Data from Intel's latest earnings announcement were used to calculate the scores, but Intel later filed a more detailed 10-Q report. For our purposes, the Cash Flow statement, which was not included in the original announcement, was the most important addition.
We have now updated the scores to take advantage of the new information.
The Cash Flow numbers were somewhat better than our estimates. As a result, the actual data in the 10-Q increased the Profitability gauge score from 6 to 10 points. The Overall gauge rose by 5 points, from 22 to 27.
- Cash Management: 13 of 25 (up from 10 in March)
- Growth: 0 of 25 (unchanged)
- Profitability: 10 of 25 (down from 8)
- Value: 3 of 25 (down from 7)
- Overall: 27 of 100 (down from 30)
For the record, the latest financial metrics are listed below.
|Cash Management||Jun 2009||Mar 2009||Jun 2008||5-yr Avg|
|Days of Sales Outstanding (days)||23.5||25.0||22.5||30.2|
|Working Capital/Invested Capital||39.8%||39.8%||38.6%||45.0%|
|Cash Conversion Cycle Time (days)||44.7||50.5||48.8||57.0|
|Gauge Score (0 to 25)||13||10||15||11|
Revenue, CFO, and Net Income growth rates compare the last four quarters to the four previous quarters.
|Growth||Jun 2009||Mar 2009||Jun 2008||5-yr Avg|
|Operating Profit growth||4.8%||2.9%||9.1%||-1.6%|
|Net Income growth||-65.1%||-34.0%||24.3%||-13.4%|
|Gauge Score (0 to 25)||0||0||18||9|
The Operating Profit rate is the annualized rate of growth in Operating Profit after Taxes over the last 16 quarters.
Although the Cash Flow rate of decline wasn't as bad as we first estimated, it was still pretty steep. Cash Flow and the Net Income were both adversely affected by the $1.45 billion fine levied by the European Commission.
|Profitability||Jun 2009||Mar 2009||Jun 2008||5-yr Avg|
|Free Cash Flow/Invested Capital||13.6%||11.2%||30.0%||9.6%|
|Gauge Score (0 to 25)||10||8||21||12|
Better-than-estimated Cash Flow improved the FCF/IF and Accrual Ratios.
|Value||Jun 2009||Mar 2009||Jun 2008||5-yr Avg|
|P/E vs. S&P 500 P/E||1.6||1.0||1.0||1.2|
|Enterprise Value/Cash Flow (EV/CFO)||8.5||8.3||8.4||25.8|
|Gauge Score (0 to 25)||3||7||10||10|
|Overall||Jun 2009||Mar 2009||Jun 2008||5-yr Avg|
|Gauge Score (0 to 100)||27||30||61||44|
Although the Overall score wasn't quite as bad as first calculated, it did not escape very weak territory. This was due mostly to poor comparisons with last year's second quarter, but the $1.45 billion fine from the Europeans for antitrust violations was also harmful.
Full disclosure: Long INTC at time of writing.